#Things that are almost impossible to do license
#Things that are almost impossible to do series

The ex post probability of getting that particular sequence is always 100%. Of course, this is because the probability that is given to you is ex ante and when you are reading the sequence of the cards after you shuffle them, you are simply validating what you see. Which may be mindblowing if you haven't studied statistics or combinatorics. And yet despite this very low probability, you just got that sequence. Take a standard deck of 52 cards, shuffle it well and spread the cards in a line. Shuffling a deck of cards ĭo you want to witness an 'improbable' event right now in your very own home? Once the problem is known, however, calculating the real odds is just a simple case of exploiting the correct mathematics. Regardless, the answer is very non-intuitive and is a good display of how people don't do well at guessing probabilities. More specifically, every possible pairings of two individuals in the group of 30 has a shot at this 1 in 365 chance. So while you get 30 shots at this 1 in 365 lottery, so does everyone else. The apparently miraculous breaking of odds is attributed to the fact that the question is 'what is the chance that any two people have the same birthday?', whereas most people following common sense tend to translate the question as 'what is the chance that someone has the same birthday as mine?'. No, the odds are significantly better than that.

#Things that are almost impossible to do license

Can you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the chance I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing!Ĭonsider a party attended by thirty people: what are the chances that two of them have the same birthday (ignoring leap years, and assuming the attendees' birthdays are entirely random)? One in twelve, or, roughly 8% (30/365)? After all, it's a 1 in 365 chance someone will share your birthday, and by the lottery analogy above, there's 30 shots at winning. I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. I was coming here, on the way to the lecture, and I came in through the parking lot. “ ”You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight. It would only become remarkable if you predicted the configuration in advance. But any combination is equally improbable, and you're certain to see one of the combinations if you look for it. That's one out of a combination of over 17 million, so it seems like a remarkably improbable feat if you treat it in the same way as the statistically illiterate. Imagine seeing one with the configuration HJB-546. The idea of this can also be expressed by looking at car licence plates. Most people will refrain from submitting a ticket with six sequential numbers because of the rationalisation that such a draw is too improbable - despite the fact that all draws are equally likely. Even though an individual has a low chance of success, overall it's almost certain that it will be won by somebody. This is because of the sheer number of people playing.

These often have incredible odds that seem impossible to beat, but indeed someone (almost) always wins. Possibly the simplest example is a lottery.

2 Mathematics-filled analysis for people who inexplicably like math.

In short: it would not be rational to believe it a random event when winning the lottery 10 times in a row.

#Things that are almost impossible to do series

On the other hand, when a string of improbabilities connect with each other in a large sequence of correct choices among an almost infinite series of wrong choices, which in turn lead to a useful outcome, then it is rational to conclude there was no randomness. In short: 'improbability' does not imply 'impossibility'.

The trouble is that we can't grasp the difference between (a) 'This particular improbable pattern of lottery numbers came up on this particular day in this particular lottery' and (b) 'Some improbable pattern of lottery numbers came up sometime in the last five years somewhere in the world.' Often it has nothing to do with statistical truth. Out of all the possibilities, they say, this one is the one that occurred - how fantastically unlikely and amazingly miraculous! It is simply impossible to believe that it just happened by chance!īut improbable things happen all the time because 'improbability' is an illusion based on our preconceptions. That is why remarkable coincidences are noted in hindsight, not predicted with foresight.Ĭreationists (e.g., William Lane Craig) and all manner of non- rationalists like to disparage their opponents or bolster their own arguments by pointing out the lack of probability of something happening. That some astonishing unspecified events will occur is certain. “ ”That a particular specified event or coincidence will occur is very unlikely.